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January 30, 2017

Twitter diplomacy: how Trump is using social media to spur a crisis with Mexico

Six days after taking office, President Donald Trump is facing the first international crisis of his administration. And it’s unfolding on Twitter.

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Following through on to crack down on immigration, Trump signed executive orders to both kick-start the with Mexico and block federal grants for 鈥溾�� 鈥� jurisdictions that offer safe harbour for undocumented immigrants.

Trump justified these measures as necessary for improving domestic security. 鈥淎 nation without borders is not a nation,鈥� he . 鈥淏eginning today, the United States of America gets back control of its borders.鈥�

After signing the orders, Trump insisted in an interview with news network that Mexico would reimburse construction expenses 鈥渁t a later date鈥�.

Mexico has taken advantage of the U.S. for long enough. Massive trade deficits & little help on the very weak border must change, NOW!

鈥� Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

Trump鈥檚 push to force Mexico to pay for the wall has plunged the two neighbours into a tense and unusual . Mexico has long been a key partner and ally of the US and Enrique Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 government has keenly tried to avoid a standoff. Trump, on the other hand, has fuelled one with his frantic social media activity.

Welcome to the era of Twitter diplomacy.

American non-diplomacy

Historically, diplomacy is not one of America鈥檚 strong suits. Former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali once that he was surprised to learn that US international officials usually see 鈥渓ittle need for diplomacy鈥�. For Americans, Boutros-Ghali claimed, it鈥檚 perceived as 鈥渁 waste of time and prestige and a sign of weakness.鈥�

But with Mexico President Trump has taken this tradition of American non-diplomacy to uncharted territories.

Pe帽a Nieto chose moderation and diplomatic subtlety to address Trump鈥檚 belligerence. This conciliatory strategy has, indeed, been perceived as on both sides of the border.

Yet the Mexican government鈥檚 situation is delicate. Either Pe帽a Nieto endures Trump鈥檚 relentless humiliation, or he jeopardises the nation鈥檚 commercial partnership with the US, which buys of Mexican exports.

So Pe帽a Nieto did everything possible to appease Trump, probably hoping that he would eventually moderate his positions. He even appointed Luis Videgaray 鈥� the unpopular politician who organised then-candidate Trump鈥檚 to Mexico 鈥� as Minister of Foreign Relations.

Trump answered the conciliatory gesture, which was in Mexico, by that his southern neighbours would pay for the wall in the border 鈥渁 little later鈥� in order to build it 鈥渕ore quickly鈥�.

Pe帽a Nieto then tried to warn Trump about the consequences that a conflict with Mexico could have upon the US agenda. Using the infamous druglord Joaqu铆n Guzm谩n Loera, aka El Chapo, as a subtle rebuke to Trump鈥檚 stance on Mexico, the president extradited him to the US , just a few hours before Barack Obama鈥檚 term expired.

and the interpreted the timing of the extradition, which had been green-lighted , as a Mexican housewarming gift to the Trump White House.

But a seems more plausible. Mexico rushed to hand over El Chapo to Obama to prevent Trump from taking credit for the extradition. As Mexican journalist Esteban Illades , if Mexico had delayed the extradition by one more day, Trump would have boasted about his role in organising it for months on Twitter.

But Trump didn鈥檛 pay attention to Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 warning: two days after taking office, he announced that he would begin with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, and set a meeting with Pe帽a Nieto on January 31.

Pe帽a Nieto sent Videgaray and Ildefonso Guajardo, Mexico鈥檚 Minister of Economy, to Washington for preparing his meeting with Trump. He instructed them to avoid both in negotiations with the American administration.

But that plan faltered when, on the night before the emissaries were to arrive to Washington, Trump that Wednesday would be a 鈥渂ig day鈥� for 鈥渘ational security鈥� because he was looking forward to 鈥渂uilding the wall鈥�. Videgaray and Guajardo when Trump left the building to sign his executive order.

This insult raised outrage in Mexico. Intellectuals, politicians and citizens, , demanded that Pe帽a Nieto cancel his visit to Washington.

Mexico鈥檚 president answered this new provocation with a , in which he said that Mexican consulates would now serve as legal aid offices for undocumented Mexican migrants in the US. He resisted though cancelling the meeting with Trump, saying that he would make a decision based on Videgaray鈥檚 and Guajardo鈥檚 report out.

But another social media blast from Trump derailed that wait-and-see strategy, too:

of jobs and companies lost. If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting.

鈥� Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

Even for mild Pe帽a Nieto this was too much. He cancelled the meeting with Trump without even a press conference. Instead he : 鈥淭his morning we have informed the White House that I will not attend the working meeting with @POTUS scheduled next Tuesday.鈥�

Esta ma帽ana hemos informado a la Casa Blanca que no asistir茅 a la reuni贸n de trabajo programada para el pr贸ximo martes con el .

鈥� Enrique Pe帽a Nieto (@EPN)

As Foreign Minister Videgaray , 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 ask your neighbour to pay for your home鈥檚 wall.鈥�

A between Trump and Pe帽a Nieto on Friday morning may allow for a brief cooling-off period, but without a doubt Mexico and the US have entered into an age of conflict. The consequences, in North America and beyond, are still uncertain.

Spectres of the national anthem

If the US administration moves forward with its proposed plan to build the wall and fund it by imposing a on Mexican imports, Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 government has options for retaliation. It could implement a crackdown on 鈥� many of them retirees 鈥� who overstay their tourist visas in Mexico, or impose on American exports.

Indeed, the US should not take Mexican friendship for granted. As Mexican historian Enrique Krauze has pointed out, despite recent good relations, Mexico has a series of against the US, which remain deeply rooted in Mexican collective memories.

First, the US invaded Mexico in 1846, annexing half of its territory. This event was so traumatic that it became the main theme of the .

Then, in 1913, the American ambassador Henry Lane Wilson to have democratically elected president Francisco Madero murdered. This incident plunged Mexico into a fierce civil war and postponed effective implementation of democracy in the country for 90 years.

Finally, in 1914 US marines , triggering a prolonged period of hostile relations. The bond between Mexico and the US only normalised again in 1942 with Franklin D. Roosevelt鈥檚 .

To maintain this peaceful coexistence, both Mexican and American governments have usually taken into account the complex historic relationship between the countries.

Trump鈥檚 novelty is that he seemingly has no interest in or intention to contemplate the conflicted history of Mexican-American relations 鈥� not even considering the strategic importance of Mexico for his nation.

The Twitter president

Instead, his policy decisions seem based on social media metrics.

Mexican writer believes that Trump鈥檚 use of Twitter as a privileged medium says a lot about this president. Twitter favours speed over analysis, wit over depth, and aggression over reflection. For Volpi, these are very Trumpian character traits.

The global consequences of such Twitter diplomacy are unknowable. But in Mexico, beyond generating a diplomatic crisis, Trump鈥檚 actions are successfully arousing the dormant spirits of Mexican nationalism.

Social media platforms are on fire there. Denise Dresser, a respected liberal intellectual, that though Donald Trump鈥檚 presidency may last eight years, Mexico has existed for thousands of years. The historian Rafael Estrada Michel has for Mexico to renegotiate not NAFTA but the , which established the current US-Mexico border after the Mexican-American war.

If US-Mexico relations continue in this line, Mexicans will be forced to pay a terrible price for Trump鈥檚 antics. established a prosperous free-trade zone in North America, and without its main trade partner, Mexico will have to entirely reinvent its global alliances and its economic structure.

By the way, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative 鈥� which, in our brave new world of , might be taken down soon 鈥� US manufacturing exports have increased 258% under NAFTA, and of Mexican exports into the US are actually originated in American inputs.

It is also likely that the US will find it seeking Mexico鈥檚 support in the near future. Neighbourly collaboration is still necessary to face the myriad challenges both countries share, including and . Will Mexico be there next time the US needs it?

It now falls on American and Mexican citizens to defend and foster the peaceful relationship that has been built with much suffering over decades 鈥� not with Twitter diplomacy, but with human feeling.

, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory,

This article was originally published on . Read the .

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